Pre-poll survey: BJP sweeps Madhya Pradesh, may win 148-160 seats

Madhya Pradesh is witnessing a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wave and is all set to vote in the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government for the third consecutive term according to a pre-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Week.

The survey, which interviewed 2,870 persons between October 13 and 20 in 140 locations in 35 constituencies, reveals that the BJP has gained in strength in the past five years with the electorate giving a thumbs up to Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. While the BJP is likely to secure 148-160 seats, Congress will win 52-62, and the Bahujan Samaj Party, 3-7. And 10-18 seats will go to other smaller parties and independents in the 230-member Assembly
.

In the last five years Madhya Pradesh has turned into a BJP bastion with the party widening its lead over the Congress. In the 2008 Assembly elections, the BJP secured 37.6 per cent of the votes but now it is the preferred party of 44 per cent of the electorate, which is a significant jump of 6 percentage points. While the Congress is also likely to increase its vote share from 32.4 per cent in 2008 to 33 now, the huge gap of 11 percentage points means that the BJP is miles ahead of its rival.

Even though the BJP voters are a little less sure than Congress voters about their preference, pro-incumbency is nearly as high as it was in 2008, giving Chouhan a huge advantage. Almost 53 per cent of the voters are in favour of the Chouhan government (56 in 2008) while only 20 per cent say that it should not get another chance (24 per cent in 2008).

The pro-incumbency wave is explained by the fact that satisfaction with the BJP government remains very high. It is 72 per cent in October 2013, only slightly down 76 per cent during the 2008 elections.

Chouhan's performance as the Chief Minister is also rated very highly. He gets the support of 78 per cent of those surveyed, which is just three percentage points lower than in 2008.

Good governance and development, better roads, and improved power supply are the top three reasons for the vote in favour of Chouhan. He has a 24 percentage point lead over his much younger rival Jyotiraditya Scindia of the Congress. Even among first-time voters Chouhan is the preferred choice.

But Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has replaced Chouhan as the top choice for the prime minister's post, whereas in July it was the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister who had been more popular.

How the regions will vote:

Except Mahakoshal (49 seats) where the Congress has recovered and is ahead of the BJP, the latter is ahead of its rivals in all other regions of the state. In Chambal (34 seats) there is a close race between the BJP and the Congress with the BSP too in the fray is some seats. In Vindhya Pradesh (56 seats) the BJP has maintained a fair lead over the Congress while in Malwa North (63 seats) the former is way ahead of its rivals. Malwa Tribal (28 seats) will see a close fight and even though the BJP is ahead, the Congress is not far behind.

As for caste equations, the BJP is the preferred choice of Brahmins, Rajputs, other upper castes and Yadavs. Among the other backward castes both the BJP and Congress are gaining at the expense of other parties, but the former is slightly ahead. Among the Scheduled Castes, the stock of the Congress has declined and the BJP has taken the lead. The Congress has slipped but still leads BJP among Scheduled Tribes. For Muslim voters the Congress is still the top choice, but the BJP has managed to make inroads.

BJP is also perceived more positively than Congress; despite not being in power in the state, the Congress is viewed as a more corrupt party than the BJP.

SEAT PROJECTIONS FOR MADHYA PRADESH

Total seats: 230

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Source : CNN IBN

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Pre-poll survey: BJP win 61-71 seats in Chhattisgarh

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has strengthened its stranglehold over Chhattisgarh and pushed the Congress out of the power game. The party is on an upswing and will win 61-71 seats in the 91-member Assembly, pushing the Congress to a distant second with only 16-24 seats, according to the pre-poll survey conducted by Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Week. The survey shows that the Congress is a big loser as the party had won 38 seats in the 2008 elections, while the BJP's score was 49. The Bahujan Samaj Party may get 0-2 seats while smaller parties are likely to have a tally of 1-5 seats. Propelled by a 6 percentage point increase in its vote share, the BJP is all set to decimate the Congress, which is facing the prospects of a 7 percentage point drop in its share. In the 2008 Assembly elections the BJP got 40.3 per cent of the votes but in October 2013 the party has the support of 46 per cent, while the Congress has slumped to 32 per cent from 38.6 per cent in the last polls.

In more good news for Chief Minister Raman Singh, pro-incumbency is the state is almost as high as 2008. Then, 51 per cent of the voters wanted to give the state government another chance, and now it is 47 per cent. Over two-thirds (66 per cent) are satisfied with the BJP government's performance, a fall of 6 points from the 2008 level. Governance, development work and food security are the main reasons cited by those who are satisfied with the Raman Singh government.

The food security law of Chhattisgarh government has benefitted many, with 80 per cent saying they receive 35 kg food grain per month at highly subsidised rates, while among the BPL households the figure is as high as 93.

Satisfaction with Raman Singh's performance as Chief Minister also continues to be very high with 69 per cent backing him. Singh remains the most preferred choice for CM, particularly among the upper castes, leading Congress leader Ajit Jogi by almost 18 percentage points .

Factionalism in Congress was also a part of the problems. More people agree than disagree with the statement that the Congress has not given Ajit Jogi the respect he deserves, and this sentiment is stronger among the traditional supporters of the party. In the event of the Congress coming to power, most want Jogi as the chief minister.

While voters see no difference between the Congress and BJP when it comes to corruption, the latter is viewed as being much better for development and for tackling Naxalism.

How Chhattisgarh is likely to vote

North Chhattisgarh (34 seats) will see a good contest between the BJP and Congress. While the BJP is ahead, the Congress is not too far behind.

But the BJP is ahead of the Congress in Central Chhattisgarh (43 seats) and South Chhattisgarh (13 seats). In the Naxalism-affected areas, too, the BJP leads the Congress, while in the other regions the ruling party is way ahead of its rival.

SEAT PROJECTIONS FOR CHHATTISGARH

      Total seats: 90

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Harsh Vardhan named BJP's CM candidate for Delhi

Ending uncertainty, the BJP on Wednesday (Oct 23) named Harsh Vardhan as the party's Chief Ministerial candidate for the December 4 Delhi Assembly elections despite opposition by city unit chief Vijay Goel who had staked claim for the post. 

The decision was taken at a meeting of party's Parliamentary Board New Delhi. 

Party president Rajnath Singh made the announcement at press conference and said the decision was unanimous and that Goel also consented to it. 

Singh was flanked by several senior leaders including veteran L K Advani, senior leaders Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Ananth Kumar and Delhi Election in-charge Nitin Gadkari. Goel and Vardhan were also both present at the press conference. 

All members of the Parliamentary Board were in the meeting except Narendra Modi who has given his consent to the decision, party sources said. 

The party expects that by presenting Vardhan, a former Health Minister who has a clean image, as the Chief Ministerial candidate it will be able to put up a tough fight to dethrone the Congress dispensation which has been in power for the last 15 years. 

The decision by the party has come despite stiff opposition to Vardhan's candidature by Goel. 

The internal squabbles in Delhi BJP over the issue had threatened to take its toll on the party's campaign. 

A number of Delhi BJP leaders last week had conveyed to the party's central leadership that they should announce the candidature of Vardhan, arguing that he has wider acceptability among people, party leaders and workers. 

BJP will do well in Delhi polls under Harsh Vardhan: Modi 

Gujarat Chief Minister and BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi today expressed confidence that the party will do well in Delhi Assembly polls under the leadership of Harsh Vardhan. 

"Congratulations to Dr. Harsh Vardhan on being named BJP's CM candidate for upcoming Delhi elections. My best wishes," Modi said on twitter. 

"As Health Minister, his (Harsh Vardhan's) trend-setting polio eradication drive made Delhi polio-free & now I am sure he will free Delhi from misgovernance," he further said. 

He further wrote that "under the leadership of Dr. Harsh Vardhan and Shri Vijay Goyal, I am confident BJP will do great in the Delhi Vidhan Sabha Elections." 

The decision to declare Dr Harsh Vardhan as BJP's chief ministerial candidate for the December 4 Delhi Assembly elections was taken by the party's parliamentary board today. Modi was not present in the meeting but had given his consent for the name of Vardhan. 

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POST YOUR IDEAS FOR BJP MANIFESTO 2014

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) launched a website today, inviting suggestions from voters for its election manifesto for the 2014 Lok Sabha poll.

Senior BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi, who heads the party's manifesto committee, said the website will help the party connect with its voters.

"A Manifesto should reflect the aspirations of the masses, especially those of Young India; it should address concerns of the people and it should redefine the way India is governed at the moment. The BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has called for the transformation of Representative Democracy into Participatory Democracy. As the first step towards your participation, we seek your suggestions and ideas to make our Manifesto more meaningful and purposeful. Please click on the ‘Post Your Suggestion’ dropbox at the top of the screen, fill in the required details, select the relevant category, post your suggestion. It’s as simple as that. We will consider each suggestion with care." 

Mr Joshi said launching the website.

The website,http://www.bjpelectionmanifesto.com, contains a form on the top right corner that can be downloaded to submit suggestions.

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